Danilo has further weakened into a tropical depression during the night. Convective clouds associated with the system are becoming amorphous and disorganised.
At 10.00 hours this morning Tropical Depression Danilo was centred at about 1480 km to the east-northeast of Mauritius in latitude 16.4 degrees east and longitude 71.3 degrees east. Danilo continues to move in a general westerly direction at about 18 km/h. On this track tropical depression Danilo is approaching our region.
Outlook from weather models All available numerical weather prediction models agree that Danilo will move in a general westerly direction until Saturday 09 January 2021. Thereafter, it will recurve towards the southwest which will bring its centre closer to Mauritius.
There is still much uncertainty regarding its intensity which has been fluctuating from day to day. It is likely that the system may strengthen slightly as it passes close to Mauritius on Sunday evening.
Weather at Rodrigues
At 10.00 hours this morning Tropical depression Danilo was located at about 900 km to the east-northeast of Rodrigues. As the system moves in a westerly track, it will pass at about 250 km to the north-northwest of Port Mathurin on Saturday morning at its closest distance. Clouds associated with Danilo will start to influence Rodrigues as from Thursday 07 night with passing showers. The showers will become heavy at times with thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.
The combined effect of the tropical depression and an anticyclone to the southeast of the Mascarenes will cause a very windy weather at Rodrigues as from Friday. The wind will blow from the southeast at a speed of about 55 km/h with gusts reaching 90 km/h.
Weather at Mauritius
Tropical depression Danilo is likely to pass at about 40 km to the north-northwest of Grand Bay on Sunday evening.
Clouds associated with the depression are likely to influence Mauritius as from Saturday morning with passing showers. The showers are likely to become more frequent and heavier on Sunday with thunderstorms.
Wind will blow from the southeast with gusts of the order of 90 km/h. The sea will be very rough.
The windy and showery weather will persist until Monday 11 January 2021 morning.
This forecast is based on available model data. Due to model uncertainties, this forecast may change. MMS will continue to monitor the system closely and will inform the public accordingly.